AR
It’s crunch time at the Open Championship. With 18 holes to play, it would seem there are any number of contenders in the mix. But who will be the one to grab the Claret Jug at Royal Birkdale?
If history is any indicator, the soon-to-be champion golfer of the year will be somebody within three shots of the 54-hole lead, held by Sam Burns at 10-under-par 200; only 13 times has somebody come back from four or more, the last being Cameron Smith at St. Andrews in 2022. That means you should be paying attention to Burns and his final-round playing partner, Ryan Fox (-8), Si Woo Kim (-8), Ryan Gerard (-7) and Lucas Herbert (-7).
That jives with another bit of history: the Open winner typically starts in the top four heading into Sunday’s final round; only 13 times has a player outside that spot on the leaderboard gone on to win, the last being Francesco Molinari at Carnoustie in 2018. Those same five players at T-4 or better.
And the biggest comeback of all time? Well, that was Paul Lawrie, who found himself 10 shots back of the lead starting the final round at the 1999 Open at Carnoustie, only to win in a playoff after Jean Van de Velde’s 72nd-hole collapse.
Here’s Sunday’s final-round pairings (local time/EDT):
7:40 a.m./2:40 a.m.
Jesper Svensson, +6
Keegan Bradley, +5
7:50 a.m./2:50 a.m.
Matthew Southgate, +4
Laurie Canter, +4
8 a.m./3 a.m.
Jack McDonald, +4
Ben Griffin, +3
8:10 a.m./3:30 a.m.
Peter Uihlein, +3
Kazuki Higa, +3
8:20 a.m./3:30 a.m.
Sepp Straka, +2
John Parry, +2
8:30 a.m./3:30 a.m.
Andy Sullivan, +2
Aldrich Potgieter, +2
8:40 a.m./3:40 a.m.
Marcus Plunkett, +2
Ryo Hisatsune, +2
8:50 a.m./3:50 a.m.
Min Woo Lee, +2
Tyrrell Hatton, +1
9 a.m./4 a.m.
Nick Taylor, +1
MJ Daffue, +1
9:15 a.m./4:15 a.m.
Eugenio Chacarra, +1
Rickie Fowler, +1
9:35 a.m./4:25 a.m.
Naoyuki Kataoka, +1
Thomas Detry, E
9:35 a.m./4:35 a.m.
J.J. Spaun, E
Victor Perez, E
9:45 a.m./4:45 a.m.
Chris Gotterup, E
Patrick Cantlay, E
9:55 a.m./4:55 a.m.
Michael Brennan, E
Kurt Kitayama, E
10:05 a.m./5:05 a.m.
Brooks Koepka, E
Bud Cauley, -1
10:15 a.m./5:15 a.m.
Alex Fitzpatrick, -1
Pierceson Coody, -1
10:25 a.m./5:25 a.m.
Corey Conners, -1
Johnny Keefer, -1
10:40 a.m./5:40 a.m.
Patrick Reed, -1
Adam Scott, -1
10:50 a.m./5:50 a.m.
Michael Thorbjornsen, -1
Shaun Norris, -1
11 a.m./6 a.m.
Marco Penge, -1
Alex Noren, -1
11:10 a.m./6:10 a.m.
Russell Henley, -1
Matt Wallace, -2
11:20 a.m./6:20 a.m.
Francesco Molinari, -2
Collin Morikawa, -2
11:30 a.m./6:30 a.m.
Jordan Smith, -2
Rory McIlroy, -2
11:40 a.m./6:40 a.m.
Hennie du Plessis, -2
Sahith Theegala, -2
11:50 a.m./6:50 a.m.
Casey Jarvis, -2
Kristoffer Reitan, -2
12:05 p.m./7:05 a.m.
Cameron Young, -3
Robert MacIntyre, -3
12:15 p.m./7:15 a.m.
Nico Echavarria, -3
Sungjae Im, -3
12:25 p.m./7:25 a.m.
Jacob Bridgeman, -3
Justin Thomas, -3
12:35 p.m./7:35 a.m.
Max Homa, -3
Alex Smalley, -3
12:45 p.m./7:45 a.m.
Josele Ballester, -3
Scottie Scheffler, -4
12:55 p.m./7:55 a.m.
Jon Rahm, -4
Shane Lowey, -4
1:05 p.m./8:05 a.m.
Cameron John, -4
Daniel Brown, -4
1:15 p.m./8:15 a.m.
Hideki Matsuyama, -4
Kazuma Kobori, -4
1:30 p.m./8:30 a.m.
Eric Cole, -4
Xander Schauffele, -4
1:40 p.m./8:40 a.m.
Tommy Fleetwood, -5
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, -5
1:50 p.m./8:50 a.m.
Jackson Suber, -6
Bryson DeChambeau, -6
2 p.m./9 a.m.
Ludvig Aberg, -6
Lucas Herbert, -7
2:10 p.m./9:10 a.m.
Ryan Gerard, -7
Si Woo Kim, -8
2:20 p.m./9:20 a.m.
Ryan Fox, -8
Sam Burns, -10
• • •
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Main Image: Kate McShane/R&A
