By Kent Gray
Patrick Reed might lead the $8 million DP World Tour Championship on Earth but the hottest player on the planet right now is Justin Rose and no one is feeling the burn quite like Tommy Fleetwood.

Rose’s 66 at Jumeirah Golf Estates left him a shot shy of Europe’s new Ryder Cup nemesis Reed in the season decider but crucially atop the leaderboard that everyone is really watching this week – the Race to Dubai points list.

Related: Reed proves he’s a ‘gamer, not a range guy’ with opening 65 on Earth

The 37-year-old Englishman has replaced compatriot Fleetwood atop the projected season-defining standings after Fleetwood opened with a shaky one-over 73. Only 10 players in the top-60 field fared worse Thursday.

There’s still 54 holes to go before Europe’s new No.1 cashes in on the career-long kudos and immediate $1.33 million bonus payout, but the momentum is clearly with Rose who is eyeing a rare European Tour hat-trick after his WGC-HSBC Champions and Turkish Airlines Open double leading into Dubai.

Before the opening round the European Tour’s social media gurus tweeted a picture of Rose and Fleetwood shaking hands on the first tee beneath a quote from the late, great Seve Ballesteros.

“I look into their eyes, shake their hand, pat their back, wish them luck but all I’m thinking is… I am going to bury you.” Fleetwood must feel like the money title that has been his for so much of this European Tour season is about to be buried on Earth, and covered in Rose(s).

He admitted as much afterwards when asked for his recovery plan for Friday:  “You’ve just got to get on with the task at hand now. As of right now, it is kind of out of my hands a little bit [because] of that start, but you never know what can happen,” Fleetwood said.

“Three days to go, that’s the luxury of four rounds of golf. I’ve got three more to go, and let’s see what happens.”

Contrast that to Rose’s post-round musings.

“Yeah, really happy with that as a start. I kind of wanted to come out today with good intent and sort of get myself moving forward quickly,” said the world No.6.

“I’ve been fortunate enough to have won the last two events, but been doing so from quite a long way behind and you can’t always rely on that. I was definitely keen today to come out and try and get going as quick as I could this week and see where it goes from here.

“It’s exciting for sure. Yeah, my job this week is to try to take as many scenarios out as I can, and just to try to win the tournament. Let’s just tee up tomorrow and keep going.”

Rose, tied second with the Aussie Scott Hend who bogeyed the 18th, took advantage of the par 5s on Earth’s outward nine and didn’t miss a green until his tee shot on the 17th crept off the edge. A three-putt bogey on the 9th triggered birdies at the 10th and 11th before he holed out for eagle on the 14th:

Rose credited his caddy Mark Fulcher for the momentum swinging sand gain.

“Fooch, to give him credit said, ‘You know, we missed the fairway, if you can get into that bunker, it’s a really good spot to be.’” Rose said afterwards. “It was a little tougher bunker shot than I imagined it was going to be, but helped that he had a lot of confidence in my bunker game. He wanted me in that bunker. That was our best possible option from missing the fairway and to make the bunker shot was nice.”

Rose admitted he was realising his duel with Fleetwood.

“Yeah, I mean, this was not really on the radar a month ago. That’s the perspective that I have to keep because it’s an opportunity for me. Certainly be easy to start to think about it now as being in my hands but I think for me, it’s still a bonus at this point.

“So there’s two things to think about this week: Winning the golf tournament and winning The Race to Dubai. I know that if I do one of those, the first one, then the second one happens. I’ve just got to try and put together a really good final three rounds and do what I always do.

“You know, some weeks it happens, some weeks it doesn’t, but right now things are certainly feeling a bit easier than they normally do.”

Indeed, sometimes you make it look as easy as this on 18 as Rose, now a combined 38 under par for his last nine European Tour rounds, closed out his round in style:

Nothing felt easy for Fleetwood who started his round with a three-putt double on the first, was three over after the 3rd. He did birdie the 5th and eagle the 7th to go out in even par 36 but mixed two more birdies with three bogeys on Earth’s homeward stretch.

It was certainly frustrating to waste gains like this improbable birdie on the 11th:

“Yeah, obviously it was a nervy start,” Fleetwood conceded. “You’re always going to be nervous. It all comes down to this at the end of the year and playing for like the biggest achievement in my career essentially. But you know, the first hole is like a comedy of errors. Got a flyer with my second shot, out of position; just make five, get on with it. Over-hit the pitch a little bit but it wasn’t easy. 2-putt, move on, make five.”

Instead he pulled the second putt and frustratingly tapped in for a six.

So after the forgettable Thursday, are the shackles of expectation now off?

“I’m still trying to figure that out. I mean, I’m sort of… one-over is a long way out of it, so if you look in terms of the tournament, I’ve got to shoot something really low tomorrow and Saturday. Then it will depend on how he plays.

“But there’s three rounds of golf. 54 holes is a lot of holes and anything can happen. I’ve had, you know, it’s been similar to the last few weeks where I’ve not had great first rounds but sort of climbed the leaderboard steadily.

“Like I said, I wasn’t far off after I really bad start. I wasn’t really far off actually shooting a decent score today. It’s just that, you know, [a bogey on ] 17 leaves a sour taste in your mouth, but it’s all right.

“I need to putt a little better. I know I can play better than today. So we’ll just get on with it and get out there and try and shoot some low scores.”

“The Race Ends Here” is the DP World Tour Championship’s marketing moniker. For Fleetwood fans, Friday is likely to decide whether it’s a sad limp to the line. The problem is, given the way Rose is currently playing, the outcome might be taken out of his hands with half the final race still to run.