Who'll win the 2024 FedEx Cup? Here are 5 common traits...

Finding a pattern through FedEx Cup history is demanding, because the PGA Tour’s postseason has been far from procedural. The playoffs’ point system and formats have been tinkered with on multiple occasions (R.I.P. Steve Sands’ board), the venues have rotated, and even the schedule itself—with the postseason downsizing from four tournaments to three—has been modified. In theory, it’s not a consistent history conducive to digestible takeaways.

Yet, if you squint hard enough, a few common threads do emerge from past playoff winners. As the 2024 postseason begins this week in Memphis, here are five traits that seem to connect the 17 FedEx Cup champs over the years.

Pre-playoff ranking matters

This is not a dance for Cinderella. Twelve winners were ranked in the top 10 FedEx Cup standings heading into the playoffs. Make that 14 of 17 if the qualifier is stretched to top 20 (Bill Haas at No. 15 in 2011, Brandt Snedeker No. 19 in 2012, Dustin Johnson No. 15 in the truncated 2020 season.) The two outliers are Rory McIlroy (No. 36 in 2016) and Billy Horschel (No. 69 in 2014).

If you want to drill down further, eight of the 17 have been in the top five: Tiger Woods (2007, 2009), Jim Furyk (2010), Jordan Spieth (2015), Justin Thomas (2017), Justin Rose (2018), McIlroy (2019) and Cantlay (2022). Meaning this year’s champ will likely come from the group of Scottie Scheffler (No. 1 in the FedEx Cup standings), Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa and Wyndham Clark (Nos. 2-5).

Keyur Khamar/PGA Tour

They need to be tee-to-green beasts

At least during their postseason run. Twelve of the 17 winners finished fourth or better in strokes gained/tee-to-green in the playoffs, that number ballooning to 11 when including strong performances from Furyk (seventh), Horschel (11th) and Snedeker (15th) in the category.

The aberrations are Haas (43rd) and Spieth (50th). On a related note, neither had a particularly good playoff run before winning at East Lake: Haas went T-24/T-61/T-16, Spieth MC/MC/T-13. Conversely, Spieth led the tour in SG/tee-to-green during the regular season, and Haas wasn’t too shabby either (26th in SG/tee-to-green in ’11). If you’re looking for a metric that forecasts success over the next three weeks, here you go.

Putting does not matter

This tenet has been well established over a season by Mark Broadie’s strokes-gained methodology, but it holds true in the playoffs’ condensed window. Only Horschel, Woods and Snedeker finished in the top 15 SG/putting during their postseason runs, with McIlroy (98th) and Singh (102nd) winning despite ranking near the bottom in the short-game category.

Taking a glance at this year’s SG/putting leaders, only two would seem to be in the FedEx Cup mix: Schauffele (ninth) and Clark (15th).

The first two playoff events are more important than you think

This may seem elementary. However, rarely can players coast into Atlanta off their regular-season point allotment.

Twelve of the 17 winners recorded a win or runner-up finish in one of their first two starts of the postseason. Yes, this applied to the old four-tournament lineup as well. In fact, when the BMW Championship was the third playoff event, only three FedEx Cup winners logged a win or runner-up at the event … and in all three of those instances, the winner had already recorded a win or runner-up at The Northern Trust or Dell Technologies Championship. No wonder they shortened the postseason.

Viktor Hovland’s win at the BMW Championship helped propel him to the FedEx Cup title in 2024. Stacy Revere

The five players that didn’t bring home a gold or silver medal: McIlroy in 2019 (T-6 at the Northern Trust, T-19 at the BMW) and 2022 (MC at St. Jude, T-8 at the BMW), Spieth in 2015 (MC/MC), Haas in 2011 (T-24/T-61) and Furyk in 2010 (skipped the first event, T-37/T-15). Perhaps more than we give it credit, early momentum does matter in the FedEx Cup.

Going green

Before the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup became one in the same, eight players captured the Tour Championship to win the FedEx Cup. Still, even those who didn’t win in Atlanta shared a common strategy: hit greens and hit them often.

Keeping in mind the limited field at the Tour Championship, FedEx Cup winners’ average finish in greens in regulation at East Lake is fourth, with nine winners finishing first or second in the category. The two outliers are, again, Spieth (ninth in GIR at the 2015 Tour Championship) and Haas (11th in ’11). This is not necessarily a surprise; East Lake is a challenging track, but also straightforward. Avoid trouble off the tee, and find the dance floor.

Main image: Scottie Scheffler. Michael Reaves