How the 36-hole cut is determined at Royal Troon

Cut day at The Open Championship brings with it plenty of stress and anxiety as players well down the leaderboard are still keeping a close eye on the scores to figure out where they stand, and whether the numbers they’re posting will be low enough to play on the weekend.

Exactly where that will fall at Royal Troon is made more uncertain by a weather forecast that calls for some wind and rain on Friday that could change the equation.

The rules for who makes the cut at The Open are similar to those at the PGA Championship: low 70 players and ties advance to play all four rounds. This differs from the U.S. Open, which makes the cut at low 60 and ties, and the Masters, which keeps the low 50 and ties around on the weekend. And there is no “10-stroke rule” in effect to help determine the British Open cut.

All this is, of course, particularly relevant for a handful of the game’s more familiar names, including the two central figures at the most recent major, the U.S. Open at Pinehurst. Both winner Bryson DeChambeau (76) and runner-up Rory McIlroy (78) have work to do Friday at Troon if they hope to find themselves merely playing on the weekend let alone back in contention.

Other notables that will be in search of a low score to keep their major season going include: Max Homa (76), Will Zalatoris (76), Tommy Fleetwood (76), Sahith Theegala (77), Rory McIlroy (78), Wyndham Clark (78), Rickie Fowler (79) and Tiger Woods (79).

What are their chances of making Open Championship 36-hole cut and playing the weekend? Well if the cut was made after just 18 holes, you needed to shoot three-over-par 74 or better to be inside the top 70 and ties. With 30 players posting even-par or better scores in the first round, the projected cutline from datagolf.com as of 4:30 a.m. Eastern on Friday was a 43.8 percent probability of five-over 147 being the number, 25.3 percent probability it rising to six-over 148 and a 22.9 percent probability it falls to four-over 146. That means every player listed about would have to shoot even-par or better scores on Friday, with McCarthy and Mickelson needing a sub-par number and Thomas needing, well, a bit of a miracle.

As a point of reference, here’s what the Open Championship 36-hole cut line has been for the last 10 Opens:

2023: 145 (+3), Royal Liverpool
2022: 144 (E), St. Andrews
2021: 141 (+1), Royal St. George’s
2019: 143 (+1), Royal Portrush
2018: 145 (+3), Carnoustie
2017: 145 (+5), Royal Birkdale
2016: 146 (+4), Royal Troon
2015: 144 (E), St. Andrews
2014: 146 (+2), Royal Liverpool
2013: 150 (+8), Muirfield