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The final major is in the books, and with it the last chance to earn beaucoup points to earn a place on the European Ryder Cup team, not to mention one of the last opportunities to impress captain Luke Donald. So who has punched their ticket, who gained ground, who lost all hope, and who remains in the shadow zones? Let’s run down the list, and keep in mind the Ryder Cup rankings are a good guide while reading, and so is Data Golf’s guide to course fit.
Team Locks
Rory McIlroy
Nothing like leading with real DRAMA, right? He’s the lone European who qualified automatically before the Open, and clearly nothing changed at Royal Portrush. Obviously Rory is going to Bethpage Black.
Jon Rahm
It was a bit of a sad ending for Rahm at Portrush, who could never quite make a run on the weekend. Nevertheless, there’s no doubt that the No. 2 player in the LIV standings will be wearing Team Europe’s colours in the fall; McIlroy telegraphed as much when he said Rahm should be on the team shortly after he went to LIV, and nothing about his play has changed that. He’s technically low-is on the points list at No. 20 thanks to LIV, but he’s no less a lock.
Tommy Fleetwood
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A T-16 finish at the Open was plenty to tie up a spot that was assuredly already tied up. You may be noticing a pattern here, and a bit of a contrast if you’ve already read the American post—there’s so much less uncertainty on the European side. We could lie and manufacture more drama, but that feels wrong. Be warned, though, the theme continues.
Robert MacIntyre
Was there ever a sliver of doubt? Was it at 94 percent instead of 100 percent? Well, now he’s finished in the top-10 at the Open, following his second place in the rain at Oakmont. Punch another ticket for Scotland.
Tyrrell Hatton
More of the same, and pretty much the same résumé as MacIntyre give or take a breakaway golf league. Hatton is actually in the lock zone at the moment despite playing on LIV, and his experience and T-16 finish at the Open cements his place on the team.
Justin Rose
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He’s the ageless wonder, and with two top-10 finishes at majors, you just can’t leave him off the squad. I just wonder if we’ll get the feel-good Rose-MacIntyre team again.
Viktor Hovland
I guess in theory Donald might have wanted something a little more inspiring than the T-63 Hovland pulled off at Portrush, but again, it falls into the same category—he’s definitely in.
Ludvig Aberg
YUP. I’m so sorry this is so boring. T-23 finish. Dude’s in.
Stock Rising
Matt Fitzpatrick
His T-3 this weekend was just massive, MASSIVE, MASSIVE!! for his chances, will give him a huge bump up the points list and represents his third top-10 in a row—solid proof that he’s rising back to the top of the sport. And it’s in the nick of time, too; it feels like he came from nowhere to be somewhere close to an ironclad lock. After his success in Rome, how can Donald turn him away?
Rasmus Hojgaard
The better of the two Hojgaard this Ryder Cup cycle chugged merrily along at the Open, securing a T-16 finish, and still seems like the best bet for the 12th spot. However, he hasn’t managed a top-10 finish in 2025 after a very good 2024, and while this was a step in the right direction, he has something left to prove in the weeks left to him.
Nicolai Hojgaard
He actually finished one shot better than his brother at Portrush, and following a T-4 at the Scottish Open a week earlier, he’s finally starting to show some form after a rough spring and summer. With a couple more quality starts, you can start to see a picture where he benefits from a weak bottom of the European lineup, and trades on the experience of being on the team in Rome. This is nowhere near secure, but he has a lot more life than two weeks ago.
Stock Unchanged
Shane Lowry
Maddie Meyer/PGA of America
The thing with Europe and captain Donald is that they have a really good sense of what they’ll be facing on Long Island, and it’s no secret that they put a premium on experience and toughness in a hostile atmosphere. Lowry gives you both of those, and a bit of a fearless demeanour to boot, plus he’s good friends with many of the principal characters on Team Europe leadership (and Rory). All of which should gloss over the fact that it has been an underwhelming last few months, starting at the PGA and continuing to Portrush, and that he’s been in the news more for swearing at golf courses than playing good golf. Nevertheless, he remains extremely, extremely close to “lock” status, if not all the way there.
Sepp Straka
OK, look … I may just be talking myself into this because I want more players in this category, but Straka’s T-52 at the Open follows three missed cuts at majors. That’s pretty bad for a guy who came in ranked eighth in the world. However, he is still a top-10 player with a PGA Tour win and a lot of good finishes when he’s not at majors, so I can’t reasonably say this hurt him to any great degree. But I still say Donald must be looking askance at that majors record. It’s not like Bethpage is going to be less intense.
Thomas Detry/Matt Wallace/Jordan Smith
Nos. 11 through 13 on the standings all finished at one under in Portrush, as if refusing in concert to distinguish themselves from one another.
Stock Falling
Sergio Garcia
At this point, after a solid but not awe-inspiring T-34 at the Open, Sergio is mostly trading on experience (he’s the all-time leader in Ryder Cup points won), a LIV victory a very long time ago and some middling form that might be just enough to pass muster. But as mentioned above, the rookies with a chance to prove themselves seem to be stuck in neutral. When Donald is under the gun to make a decision, will any of them look enticing enough to ignore Sergio’s pedigree? Maybe not, but it’s Fitzpatrick’s rise that really hurts Sergio, because if you believe Fitzpatrick will take a spot, now Sergio has to beat both Hojgaards for that final spot. From where I sit, it doesn’t look good.
How the European Team shakes out (according to us)
McIlroy, Rahm, Fleetwood, MacIntyre, Hatton, Rose, Hovland, Aberg, Fitzpatrick, Lowry, Straka, Rasmus Hojgaard
Interestingly, it’s the same team as Donald had in 2023, except for a different Hojgaard twin.
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